This app is designed to help learners explore the idea of empirical probability by trying to find out the true win probability of the Atlanta hawks by 'sampling' data across a run of games using a win/loss (binomial) model. Tick “Show settings” to reveal and adjust the underlying probability of the Hawks winning.
The student can set the “Number of games”, then click “Get results!” to run a simulation of the results of those games. Ask them to start with short runs of games and try to guess the win probability (proportion of games the Hawks win), then do the same with longer runs of games. What do they notice about the win rate when the sample of games is small compared to large?
Tick “Show simulations” to switch from a single results plot to a cumulative win-rate plot across repeated simulations — click “Get results!” again to add more. Again, what do they notice when the sample of games is small compared to large.
Use “Refresh” to clear everything and start over.